Sleeping Beauty problem: Difference between revisions

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subject, named Sleeping Beauty, agrees to an experiment as follows:

Sleeping Beauty volunteers to be put into a deep sleep on a Sunday. There is then a fair coin toss.

If this coin toss comes up heads, Sleeping Beauty wakes once (on Monday) and asked to

If this coin toss comes up heads, Sleeping Beauty wakes once (on Monday) and is asked to

estimate the probability that the coin toss was heads. Her estimate is recorded and she is

then put back to sleep for 2 days until Wednesday, at which time the experiment's results are tallied.

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Given the above problem, create a Monte Carlo estimate of the actual results. The program should find the

proportion of heads on waking and asking Sleeping Beauty for an estimate, as a percentage of the times Sleeping Beauty

proportion of heads on waking and asking Sleeping Beauty for an estimate, as a credence or as a percentage of the times Sleeping Beauty

is asked the question.

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end

# If tails, we do this again, but ~~add~~ ~~only~~ if ~~tails, so do~~ not add.

# If tails, we do this again, but of course we will not add as if it was heads.

if coin_result == "tails"

wakenings += 1

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gotheadsonwaking += 1

# If tails, we do this again, but ~~add~~ ~~only~~ if ~~tails, so do~~ not add.

# If tails, we do this again, but of course we will not add as if it was heads..

if coin_result == "tails":

wakenings += 1